久久99精品久久久_天津天?；ü煞萦邢薰?/title> <meta http-equiv="X-Frame-Options" content="SAMEORIGIN / DENY "> <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8" /> <meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge">  <meta charset="utf-8" /> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0" /> <meta name="description" content="" /> <meta name="author" content="" />  <link rel="stylesheet" href="/w/css/bootstrap.min.css" /> <link rel="shortcut icon" href="/w/img/favicon.ico" /> <link href="/w/css/rongchuang/public.css" rel="stylesheet">   <link href="/w/css/hengda/public.css" rel="stylesheet"> <meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-transform" /> <meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-siteapp" /> </head> <body style="background-color: #A2C9F0;"> <h1><a href="http://www.baoduoli9.com/">久热国产VS视频在线观看,亚洲AV无码国产精品色字幕综合,亚洲午夜无码久久久久小说,免费视频精品一区二区,亚洲综合无码一区二区三区</a></h1><div id="h17nr" class="pl_css_ganrao" style="display: none;"><listing id="h17nr"><tt 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id="main">  <div class="gsigqaqwk" id="left" class="news-left"> <div id="gsigqaqwk" class="crumbs"> <a href="index.do">首頁(yè)</a> > <a href="tzhgx.do"><font style="color: #DE2E5D;">新聞中心</font></a> </div> <div> <div id="gsigqaqwk" class="editor news"> <div id="gsigqaqwk" class="head"> <h1>2016津城樓市的三大看點(diǎn),改善性需求有望延續</h1> <p class="news-info"> 發(fā)布時(shí)間：2016-12-19 18:30:09</p> <p></p> </div> <div id="gsigqaqwk" class="body Pasual"> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> </span> <span style="font-size:14px"><strong><span style="color:black; font-family:宋體">看點(diǎn)一：改善性需求有望延續</span></strong></span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 日前，著(zhù)名證券研究機構中金公司研究部率先發(fā)布了對</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2016</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年及以后的中國房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)趨勢預測報告。報告認為，</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2016</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年中國房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)將整體較為平淡，分化的走勢還將繼續，一二線(xiàn)城市房地產(chǎn)銷(xiāo)售均價(jià)將上漲</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">10%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">，而銷(xiāo)量將持平。位于高鐵網(wǎng)絡(luò )連接的中心城市由于推動(dòng)了經(jīng)濟升級和人口流入，房地產(chǎn)需求通常比較穩健，像北京、天津、上海、杭州、南京等城市的房地產(chǎn)前景依然被看好，而三四線(xiàn)城市的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)面臨著(zhù)高庫存和弱需求，預計房地產(chǎn)銷(xiāo)量將下降</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">10%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">，銷(xiāo)售均價(jià)將下跌</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">5%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">。</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif"> </span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 從</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2015</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年成交結構方面可以看出，改善性需求已經(jīng)在釋放。為此，有專(zhuān)家預計</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2016</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年一、二線(xiàn)城市會(huì )延續去年改善性住房需求強勁的表現，需求成交比例將進(jìn)一步提高。究其原因，主要是因為不少家庭現有的住房普遍戶(hù)型較小，而且相當一部分現有住房質(zhì)量不佳。另外，二孩政策的全面放開(kāi)也是導致改善性住宅需求旺盛的重要推手。在地產(chǎn)企業(yè)方面，不少房企</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2015</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年拿的地很多也是為了改善型需求做準備。因此，與改善型住房需求相比，首次置業(yè)需求和投資性需求正趨于弱勢。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 另外，記者在采訪(fǎng)部分置業(yè)者也聽(tīng)到這樣一種聲音：</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2016</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)會(huì )比</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2015</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年稍差一些，但要強于</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2014</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年。這是因為首先從人口結構來(lái)講，剛需雖然有所減少，但改善性需求蓬勃發(fā)展，從而彌補了剛需的略微下降，也就是說(shuō)整體需求還在；另外，國家政策支持力度也會(huì )有望越來(lái)越大；最后，中國城市群格局會(huì )越來(lái)越清晰，如果房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)布局合理、找準定位，同樣會(huì )取得理想的銷(xiāo)售業(yè)績(jì)。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> </span> <span style="font-size:14px"><strong><span style="color:black; font-family:宋體">看點(diǎn)二：一線(xiàn)城市表現更好</span></strong></span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 就在剛剛過(guò)去的</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2015</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年末，中國人民銀行發(fā)布《</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2016</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年中國宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟預測》報告。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 記者看到，在房地產(chǎn)方面，該報告指出，</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2015</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">4</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">月以來(lái)，全國商品房銷(xiāo)售面積和銷(xiāo)售額同比增速開(kāi)始由負轉正。</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">4</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">至</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">11</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">月商品房銷(xiāo)售面積的同比增速平均為</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">11.8%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">，而商品房銷(xiāo)售額的同比增速平均為</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">22.4%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">。三季度國房景氣指數顯現止跌回升勢頭，從二季度的</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">92.54</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">上升到</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">93.30</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">，進(jìn)一步表明房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)有逐漸回暖跡象。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 分城市看，北京、上海、廣州、深圳等一線(xiàn)城市銷(xiāo)售額增速明顯快于其他城市，其他城市的商品房銷(xiāo)售也在復蘇。一線(xiàn)城市房?jì)r(jià)在</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2015</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">6</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">月份開(kāi)始出現同比增長(cháng)，目前同比漲幅已達約</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">15%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">，二三線(xiàn)城市房?jì)r(jià)降幅持續收窄，情況也在改善。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 房地產(chǎn)銷(xiāo)售的回暖和存銷(xiāo)比的下降，將有助于提升開(kāi)發(fā)商的信心，有利于未來(lái)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)投資的企穩回升。但是也有跡象表明，在一段時(shí)間之內，房地產(chǎn)投資仍將面臨一些下行壓力。首先，從先行指標看，</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2015</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年前</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">10</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">月房屋新開(kāi)工面積同比下降</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">13.9%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">，因此房地產(chǎn)投資增速在一段時(shí)間內還可能繼續減速；第二，未在統計之內的一些三、四線(xiàn)城市的房?jì)r(jià)、銷(xiāo)售和庫存情況并不樂(lè )觀(guān)，因此在一些大中城市房地產(chǎn)投資開(kāi)始回升之時(shí)，中小城市的投資仍可能繼續減速；第三，不少地區銷(xiāo)售回暖和待售增長(cháng)并存，但待售面積增長(cháng)較快；第四，從中長(cháng)期看，人口因素對房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的支撐力度將減弱。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 該報告還進(jìn)一步做出分析，作為房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)投資的重要領(lǐng)先指標，房地產(chǎn)銷(xiāo)售回暖一般預示著(zhù)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)去庫存速度加快，后續投資將回升。據歷史數據測算，銷(xiāo)售端的熱度向前傳導到開(kāi)發(fā)端一般需三個(gè)季度左右。但考慮到上述下行壓力，預期此輪銷(xiāo)售回暖帶動(dòng)房地產(chǎn)投資回升的時(shí)滯很可能長(cháng)于歷史規律，即房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)投資的企穩回升更可能發(fā)生在</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2016</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年下半年。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> <strong> </strong></span><span style="font-size:14px"><strong> <span style="color:black; font-family:宋體">看點(diǎn)三：仍以去庫存為主</span></strong></span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 由于</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2016</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)仍然要以去庫存為主要任務(wù)，因此，市場(chǎng)更寄予希望的是房貸、稅收等方面政策的繼續放松。為此有專(zhuān)家預測，最大程度激活剛性需求的手段則是首付的下調，如果此舉能夠實(shí)施，則對樓市去庫存將發(fā)揮最為顯著(zhù)的推動(dòng)作用。此外，房貸利息抵扣個(gè)稅政策也能夠切實(shí)提高購房者的購買(mǎi)力，特別是對改善型需求的刺激或更為明顯，因此如果實(shí)施，將在一、二線(xiàn)城市引爆樓市，對于庫存去化會(huì )有明顯的促進(jìn)作用。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 此外，中國社會(huì )科學(xué)院經(jīng)濟學(xué)部、中國社會(huì )科學(xué)院科研局、中國社會(huì )科學(xué)院數量經(jīng)濟與技術(shù)經(jīng)濟研究所、社會(huì )科學(xué)文獻出版社也在不久前共同舉辦</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2016</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年《經(jīng)濟藍皮書(shū)》發(fā)布暨中國經(jīng)濟形勢報告會(huì )。藍皮書(shū)指出，</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2015</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年以來(lái)“救市”政策頻發(fā)，央行五次降息四次降準，一線(xiàn)城市、部分二線(xiàn)城市樓市需求在政策刺激下開(kāi)始集中釋放，樓市基本面出現好轉。在房地產(chǎn)銷(xiāo)售方面，</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">2015</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">年</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">1</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">至</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">9</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">月，全國商品房銷(xiāo)售面積同比增長(cháng)</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">7.5%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">，比</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">1</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">至</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">8</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">月繼續提高</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">0.3</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，下半年以來(lái)持續好轉，其中住宅銷(xiāo)售面積同比增長(cháng)</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">8.2%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">，回暖勢頭良好；在房地產(chǎn)資金方面，房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)企業(yè)到位資金增速繼續加快，</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">1</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">至</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">9</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">月，全國房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)企業(yè)到位資金同比增長(cháng)</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">0.9%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">，與</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">1</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">至</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">8</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">月持平，連續</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">4</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">個(gè)月正增長(cháng)。</span></p> <p><span style="color:#3E3E3E"> 房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的持續回暖有望從銷(xiāo)售端傳導到投資端，尤其是隨著(zhù)部分大城市庫存不足的風(fēng)險凸顯，其房地產(chǎn)投資有望企穩回升；在房地產(chǎn)資金方面，</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">1</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">至</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">9</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">月，房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)企業(yè)新開(kāi)工面積同比下降</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">12.6%</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">，降幅收窄</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E; font-family:arial,sans-serif">4.2</span><span style="color:#3E3E3E">個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，下半年以來(lái)降幅首次縮窄，也顯示房地產(chǎn)新開(kāi)工項目正出現筑底回升跡象，后續房地產(chǎn)投資增速或將有好轉。此外，從歷史經(jīng)驗看，房地產(chǎn)銷(xiāo)售形勢回暖，經(jīng)過(guò)一段時(shí)間之后，必然要帶動(dòng)房地產(chǎn)投資由降轉升。盡管有存量房消化任務(wù)，但大城市存量房持續較快減少，住宅開(kāi)發(fā)投資活動(dòng)必然會(huì )逐步增加。</span></p> </div> </div> </div> </div>   <div class="gsigqaqwk" id="right"> <div id="gsigqaqwk" class="title news"></div> <ul class="menu" style="width: 259px;border: 1px solid #e6e6e6;height: 226px;"> <li id="tags1"><a href="xwlist.do?tag=1" style="text-decoration: none; color: #847765;line-height: 45px;">綜合新聞</a></li>  <li id="tags3"><a href="xwlist.do?tag=3" style="text-decoration: none; color: #847765;line-height: 45px;">媒體報道</a></li> <li id="tags4"><a href="xwlist.do?tag=4" style="text-decoration: none; color: #847765;line-height: 45px;">招標公告</a></li> <li id="tags5"><a href="xwlist.do?tag=5" style="text-decoration: none; color: #847765;line-height: 45px;">政策導讀</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div>  </div> </div> <div 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